Our monthly Dealer Sentiments & Business Conditions survey has started asking dealers for their 2026 forecasts. The initial outlook is for sales to be down 10% year-over-year in 2026. Dealers latest forecast is for 2025 sales to be down 12% on average year-over-year.

Looking at dealers by brand, Deere dealers are forecasting the largest year-over-year decline in 2025 at down 20%. Shortline-only dealers are the only group calling for sales growth, forecasting a 3% increase in 2025 sales. 

One corn belt dealer said, “Quoting and purchasing activity has slowly worsened throughout the year. Customer sentiment remains depressed and we feel 2026 will be slightly worse than 2025.”

Another dealer noted that it seemed like customer sentiment took a “step back month-over-month,” adding that commodity prices and equipment prices are not encouraging.  

Yet another dealer shared that while their dollar sales are up, their unit sales are down year-over-year and their margin is down more than 5 points vs. last year. 

Watch the full version of this episode of On The Record