Friends who mingled in the aisles of the Associated Equipment Distributors Summit in Orlando early this year reported brisk off-the-record discussions concerning U.S. workforce ills such as a looming skills gap in technical and trade professions, and the thinning of the nation’s workforce itself. 

Those conversations were well-founded. The construction industry projects it will need more than half a million additional workers annually to meet demand going forward, while the automotive sector similarly estimates the need for 100,000 new skilled technicians each year.

Opportunities Not Enough

In a recent broadcast conversation between Fox News commentator Brian Kilmeade and Mike Rowe, famous for his advocacy for increased emphasis on classroom vocational training in the trades to meet demands for skilled labor, the pair touched on projected shortfalls in skilled workers in the face of industry’s current — and immediate — demands.

Rowe, fresh off the Energy AI Summit in Pittsburg, applauded the promise of new opportunities for skilled workers as the AI Data Center boom sweeps the nation. Yet he wondered where the workers to fill those positions will be found, noting opportunity alone apparently is not enough to solve unemployment problems. 

“Larry Fink, the CEO of Blackrock told an audience recently the industries in his $12 trillion portfolio need 500,000 electricians right now,” Rowe explained. “I’ve been working with the American submarine industrial base and officials report an immediate need for 140,000 welders and electricians.” Rhetorically, he asks: How are these jobs to be filled if we currently have so many open positions and employers still bemoan the fact they can’t find skilled workers to fill their needs?

Recent reports show the pool of new workers has changed drastically as Baby Boomers retire, with Generation Z somewhat nonchalantly reporting for work. ResumeBuilder.com says the “Zoomers” have the highest quit rate in their first 90 days on the job and only 26% of them report being actively engaged in their work. Actually, 37% describe themselves as “actively disengaged,” marking a complex generation of talent that likely will continue to struggle in the workplace.

Do the Math

In addition, Rowe says 7 skilled workers retire every year and only 2 enter the work force to replace them. That means 41% of the aging workforce will retire by 2031, further adding to the “replacement gap.”

Going forward employers must find some way to address whatever missing link is at work alienating part of the work force, he says. 

Part of the answer may lie in the comments of Kory Anderson, CEO of North Dakota’s Anderson Industries foundry and creator of the Iron Warrior Academy which is dedicated to training the next generation of those skilled in trades through 10-day immersive learning workshops.

“We’re not just teaching welding, machining, casting, and trade skills, we’re instilling discipline, grit, work ethic, and pride,” says Anderson. “These young men and women don’t want handouts. They want a mission. They want to build. It’s about forging a future where hard work, skill and purpose matter again.”

Similarly, Rowe’s Mike Works Foundation has invested $13 million in training 2,500 students in recent years in various trades for manufacturing and energy-related positions. The majority of the graduates were earning six figures within the first year, Rowe explains.

The Rowe and Anderson formulas seem to be successful. The immediate challenge for U.S. industry, and national security, is to replicate those successes on a massive scale.

Forbes recently noted the average cost of a 4-year college degree in the U.S. in 2023 was $104,108 for a public university and $223,360 for private schools. That’s up 169% since 1980. At the same time starting salaries for new college grads have risen by 19% — stagnant when the cost of inflation is figured.

The ROI for a college degree has been deflated as the push for college education has been inflated, fueled in part by a massive federal student loan program, the bill for which is now painfully coming due for many Generation Xers.

In the trades, however, Forbes notes certifications take about 2 years to complete, and in the case of electricians the average training costs $17,000. A licensed auto technician will pay about $22,000 for certification.

Currently, trade jobs in construction, plumbing and HVAC are among the highest paying with annual mean wages for carpenters at $83,880 and $93,080 for plumbers.

But statistics aside, the U.S. workforce is currently unable to meet immediate and long-term demands because of the replacement gap in total workers available, an unaddressed will gap in worker relationship work, and the skills gap which, in part, has developed through a long-term neglect of vocational (hands-on) skill training in public schools.

Rowe says all the gaps need to be addressed, but when asked by the maritime industry where they need to look for skilled workers, he answers: “In the 8th grade.” Meanwhile, he asks: “Who will build the submarines?”