The used equipment market is shifting, says Andy Campbell, director of insights for TractorZoom. And while it’s not a total recovery, it is becoming more predictable. 

According to Campbell, for the most part auction and dealer sold values are fairly strong. He says this is likely due to there being a lower supply and people need to replace equipment they either don’t have or have sold. 

Combines are a good example of this, he says. 

Currently, the combine market is in a better place than it was a year ago. Campbell says, it’s not dramatically better, but measurably, noting that “For dealer principals and used equipment managers who have been grinding through a difficult inventory correction the last few years, that distinction matters.”

For example, Class 8 combine supply is down 16% year-over-year, and it sits 37% below the peak we saw in August 2024. Campbell says that’s real progress. He adds that the inventory problem that defined 2024 has not gone away, but it has shrunk. 

"Whether it's all used equipment or combines, the top pieces of information that people should be watching, top one absolutely are actual dealer sold values. I'd say now this year more than any other year in the past, and that's for a couple different reasons. One, that we're seeing a bit of a return or a rebound to some actual sales happening. And I think any bit of information that indicates where sales might be is worth chasing right now considering where we're at in the farm economy. The other piece is that auction values can be a good litmus test to how the economy's doing, but there's just less of those than there have been in the past. And so with fewer data points, it's harder to gather exactly what's happening in the market. But dealer actual sold values for us right now are telling probably the most predictive tale of what we're hearing from dealer sentiment in those kind of conversations.”

"And so yeah, I'd say of any piece of data that we're following right now, it is the absolute actual deal sold values. And then beyond that one, quote activity is another piece that I think that precedes obviously some sales, but it also is of a really good predictor in the conversations we're having with the demand in your region and at the interest level. And so we're starting to see that pick back up in some areas, especially here recently as the corn market just rebounded a little to see if that triggers a little bit higher buyer sentiment and activity from the farmers.”

In a recent webinar, Campbell says dealers ranked combines as the top concerning category that they’re watching, which given the time of year is not surprising. 

"The second biggest reason why I'm paying attention to combines now is if we rewind this whole story back about three years, planters were the first piece of equipment to really take a big drop in sales when we hit that post-pandemic supply increase and net farmer income decrease. And so the second category of equipment that really took that hit was combines.”

"Planters, we saw a nice resurgence in May to June on the sales side. And if everything plays out equally, then we might see that resurgence again now for combines. And so it's poised to be ready for that replacement cycle to happen. And obviously now being July and August, it's the prime time to sell some combines.”

Campbell says that we should know by the end of July if the combine replacement cycle has kicked in. You can read more about Campbell’s assessment of the combine market on Farm-equipment.com. 

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