The USDA released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for November after missing the October report due to the federal government shutdown. Highlights from the summary report can be found below. Click here to read the full report. 

WHEAT: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies and higher ending stocks, with no change to use. Supplies are raised on greater production, up 58 million bushels to 1,985 million, on a record all wheat yield based on the September 30 Small Grains Summary. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00 as larger global supplies reduce price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.

The global wheat outlook for 2025/26 is for larger supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are projected to increase 11.7 million tons to 1,090.3 million on higher production for most of the major wheat exporters including Kazakhstan, Argentina, the EU, the United States, Australia, Russia, and Canada. Global consumption is increased 4.3 million tons to 818.9 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for Russia, Kazakhstan, and the EU. World trade is 2.5 million tons larger at 217.2 million, primarily on greater exports for Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan that are only partly offset by a reduction for Russia. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are raised 7.4 million tons to 271.4 million, resulting in what would be the first year-to-year increase in global wheat stocks since 2019/20.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for increases in supply, exports, and ending stocks. Total supply is 144 million bushels higher as larger beginning stocks are partially offset by lower production. Beginning stocks are 207 million bushels higher based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 186.0 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 90.0 million acres. Total use is up 100 million bushels reflecting a higher export forecast. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion reflecting shipments to date. Inspection data imply exports set a monthly record during September and again in October. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel.  

Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 3.2 million tons higher to 1.576 billion tons. This month’s 2025/26 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, virtually unchanged trade, and smaller ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher reflecting increases for Mexico and the EU that are partly offset by a decline for Egypt. Mexico production is raised reflecting greater area expectations. The EU is higher as an increase for France is partially offset by a reduction for Germany. Foreign barley production is raised reflecting increases for the EU, Russia, Argentina, and Ukraine that are partly offset by a cut for the United Kingdom.  

Major global trade changes include greater corn exports for the United States and South Africa but a reduction for Ukraine. Corn imports are raised for Iran, Egypt, Venezuela, and the United Kingdom, but lowered for China, the EU, and Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine. Global corn ending stocks are down fractionally to 281.3 million tons.  

RICE: The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. rice this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and decreased ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on the NASS November Crop Production report, which lowered 2025/26 production by 1.5 million cwt to 207.3 million, all on a smaller yield. The average all rice yield is forecast at 7,506 pounds per acre, down 53 pounds from the previous forecast. Long-grain production is forecast at 152.7 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production is at 54.7 million. Projected 2025/26 all rice ending stocks are lowered by 1.5 million cwt to 51.9 million, down 4 percent from last year. The 2025/26 all rice season-average farm price (SAFP) decreased $0.50 per cwt to $12.70 cwt on reduced SAFP forecasts for long-grain and Other States (Southern) medium- and short-grain.  

The 2025/26 global rice outlook this month is for slightly lower supplies, fractionally higher consumption, increased trade, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced 0.4 million tons to 729.1 million, mainly on lower beginning stocks for Thailand and Senegal and reduced production for Pakistan and Senegal more than offsetting increases for the Philippines and Egypt. World 2025/26 consumption is raised 0.2 million tons to a record 542.4 million on increases for Nigeria and Egypt. Global 2025/26 trade is up 0.8 million tons to 62.9 million, primarily on China and Thailand. Projected 2025/26 world ending stocks are reduced 0.5 million tons to 186.7 million, mostly on Thailand, Pakistan, and Senegal more than offsetting higher stocks for several countries.  

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2025/26 is projected to reach 125.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million from the previous estimate. The reduction is attributed to lower soybean production, although it is partially offset by higher peanut and cottonseed output. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 48 million, on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected down 0.5 bushels to 53.0 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are projected to be 61 million bushels lower than the September forecast, due to lower beginning stocks from the September 30 Grain Stocks report and reduced production.  

U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million from the previous forecast due to lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil and Argentina. In September, Argentina temporarily reduced export taxes leading to an influx of export registrations during the peak U.S. export season. Further, since the last report, the U.S. entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher U.S. prices and narrowed the price spread between U.S. and other major exporters. While U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the United States no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters.

U.S. soybean crush is unchanged and ending stocks are forecast down marginally. The U.S. seasonaverage soybean price for 2025/26 is raised $0.50 to $10.50 per bushel. The soybean meal price is raised $20 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.

Global oilseed production for 2025/26 is lowered this month mainly on lower soybean and sunflower production partly offset by higher rapeseed and cottonseed. Soybean production is reduced 4.1 million tons on lower output for the United States, Ukraine, and India. Sunflowerseed production is lowered 1.0 million tons on lower production for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Turkey; partly offsetting is higher sunflowerseed production for Argentina. Global rapeseed production is raised 1.3 million tons on higher production for the EU, Australia, Ukraine, and the UK.

The global 2025/26 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower beginning stocks and production, reduced crush, slightly higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 0.2 million tons due to updates to 2024/25 balance sheets. Ending stocks for 2024/25 are lowered for the United States, the EU, and Argentina but higher for Brazil and China. EU ending stocks are lowered due to higher crush. Argentina’s 2024/25 balance sheet shows higher exports and crush leading to lower stocks. Brazil’s 2024/25 balance sheet includes higher production, increased 2.5 million tons to 171.5 million, reflecting estimates by CONAB and utilization data to date. As a result of reported data to date, Brazil’s 2024/25 crush, exports, and ending stocks are raised. China’s 2024/25 ending stocks are increased due to higher imports that are partly offset by higher crush.   Global soybean crush for 2025/26 is reduced 1.7 million tons to 365.0 million. Crush is reduced for India on the lower crop. Crush is reduced for Argentina on lower supplies due to lower beginning stocks and higher exports. Partly offsetting is a 1-million-ton increase to Brazilian crush to 59 million tons, raised in line with the higher crush estimate for the previous marketing year.  

Global soybean exports for 2025/26 are increased 0.2 million tons to 188.0 million. Exports are raised 0.5 million tons for Brazil and 2.3 million for Argentina, in line with increases in the previous marketing year and large export registrations to date; mostly offsetting are lower shipments for the United States and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are reduced 2.0 million tons to 122.0 million, with lower stocks for Argentina, Brazil, the United States, the EU, Ukraine, and India partly offset by higher stocks for China.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is lowered from the previous September report with lower beef, pork, and turkey production forecasts partially offset by higher broiler production. Beef production is lowered, as reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lower weights are partially offset by higher expected cow and bull slaughter. The pork production forecast is lowered on a slower pace of slaughter through early November more than offsetting higher dressed weights. Slaughter forecasts also reflect updated 2025 hog inventories and pig crops provided in the September 25 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Broiler production forecasts for the third and fourth quarters are raised based on production data reported through August and daily slaughter data reported through early November. Turkey production is lowered on production data reported through August and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling through early November. Egg production is lowered based on production data reported through August and HPAI cases reported through early November.

For 2026, beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter, with the slower rate of fed cattle marketings expected to carry into the first half of 2026. Pork production is reduced on lower expected hog supplies for the year, with reduced farrowing expectations for late-2025 and early-2026 indicated in the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Broiler production is raised as the recent increased in slaughter rates is expected to carry into 2026. Turkey production is reduced for the first and second quarters based on recent HPAI-related culling. Egg production is unchanged from the previous report.

The beef import forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are unchanged from the previous report based on U.S. Census data reported through July. Beef exports are reduced in the third quarter of 2025 but remain unchanged for the outlying quarters of 2025 and 2026. Pork exports are unchanged for 2025 but are reduced for 2026 on tighter domestic supplies. Broiler exports are raised for 2025 on recent data, with higher exports carrying into 2026. Turkey exports are reduced for 2025 and 2026 on the most recent data and tighter domestic supplies.

Livestock and poultry prices for 2025 are updated to reflect reported monthly data through the third quarter. Cattle prices are reduced for the fourth quarter of 2025 based on recent prices, with reduced prices carrying into 2026. The fourth quarter hog price forecast is lowered on reported daily prices through early November, but the 2026 price forecast is raised on tighter expected hog supplies. The fourth quarter broiler price forecast is lowered on recent prices and raised production expectations, with reductions continuing into 2026. Turkey prices are raised for the fourth quarter of 2025 on recent price levels, with reduced production expected to support higher prices in 2026. Egg prices are reduced on lower third quarter prices continuing into the beginning of the fourth quarter. The 2026 egg price forecast is also reduced.

The milk production forecast for 2025 is raised from the previous report. Higher milk cow inventories and robust milk per cow through the third quarter of 2025 were reported in the recent Milk Production report. The milk production forecast for 2026 is also raised, as the higher inventories and increased productivity rates are expected to carry into next year.

The import forecast for 2025 is lowered on a fat basis, primarily on fewer shipments of butter. Imports on a skim-solids basis for 2025 are unchanged. Exports for 2025 are raised on both a fat basis, primarily on competitive butter and cheese prices, and on a skim-solids basis due to more shipments of whey-containing products. Fat basis exports are also raised for 2026 on higher shipments of butter and cheese, while skim-solids basis exports are unchanged.

The butter price forecast for 2025 is reduced as increased supplies of milkfat have resulted in sharply lower prices for the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are also lowered for 2025 as increased milk supplies put downward pressure on dairy product prices. The whey price forecast is raised on strong demand. Class III prices are reduced, as lower cheese prices more than offset higher whey prices. Class IV prices are reduced on lower butter and NDM prices. The all milk price forecast for 2025 is lowered to $21.05 per cwt.

For 2026, butter, cheese, and NDM prices are lowered on increased milk supplies. The whey price forecast is raised, as strong demand is expected to continue into 2026. The Class III price is raised with higher whey prices more than offsetting the declines in cheese prices. The Class IV price is reduced on lower butter and NDM prices. The all milk price is projected lower at $19.25 per cwt.

COTTON: The November outlook for 2025/26 U.S. cotton supply and demand shows higher production, exports and ending stocks compared to September, with no change to consumption and imports. The forecast for U.S. production is raised almost 900,000 bales to 14.1 million, reflecting higher expected yields in most States and increasing the projected national average yield almost 7 percent to 919 pounds per harvested acre. The export forecast is increased 200,000 bales to 12.2 million. The balance of the production increase flows to ending stocks, which are raised almost 20 percent to 4.3 million bales, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 30.9 percent. The projected season-average upland price for 2025/26 is lowered to 62 cents per pound.

The 2025/26 outlook for world cotton supply and demand in November shows higher production, consumption, trade, and stocks compared to the September outlook. Global cotton production is forecast 2.4 million bales higher with increases of 1 million bales in China, about 900,000 bales in the United States, and 500,000 bales in Brazil. World trade is raised 300,000 bales and consumption 50,000 bales. Beginning stocks are raised over 400,000 bales largely reflecting updated 2024/25 trade data for several countries. As a result of these changes, global ending stocks are raised about 2.8 million bales to 75.9 million.