With presidential promises of renewed manufacturing capacity in the U.S. over the comingyears, a lot of folks immediately imagine multi-acre factories staffed with hundreds of assembly-line workers busily churning out “Made in U.S.A.” products in a stylized renewal of WWII-era American productivity. Times have changed, however.
While it’s likely that U.S. manufacturing will undergo a renaissance, what evolves will bear little resemblance to the manufacturing engine Rosey the Riveter handed back to G.I. Joe in 1945.
Takeaways
- A resurgence in U.S. manufacturing likely won’t rely on massive assembly-line factories.
- Worker attitudes have shifted away from pre-War Industrial Revolution models.
- Systems engineers and digital technicians manning AI platforms will staff manufacturing resurgence.
Then, thousands of war-weary G.I.s were returning to an optimistic nation clamoring for new products to replace the worn-out vehicles, tools, home furnishings and other amenities needed to equip a newly-forged superpower and its population. The veterans — many farm kids before the war — had seen the world, and longed for the prosperity and stability that a steady paycheck and promised pension afforded them through union contracts. They made careers of “putting Tab A in Slot B” from 8-5 Monday through Friday, clocking out and going home. It bought new homes, new cars, maybe a boat. It afforded 2-4 kids, an annual vacation and a lawn to mow, all while Mom stayed home.
Today, it’s a challenge to find individuals with trained aptitudes to spend every day on an assembly line. In a recent Fortune.com article, the authors noted while the U.S. is expected to add 3.8 million new manufacturing jobs by 2033, Gen Z is not banging down the doors of the employment office to sign on.
The authors note while manufacturing based on the Industrial Revolution model produced by 1945 provided stable careers and opportunities, today’s economy provides better financial rewards to plumbers, carpenters and even waitresses in jobs that are more dynamic than working “as a functioning cog on an assembly line.” Gen Z apparently is making a significant choice to seek employment in the service sector.
Manufacturing jobs in the U.S. pay an average of $25 per hour, or about $52,000 per year — far below the average American salary of $66,000. Finish carpenters, plumbers, welders, production workers in the oil and gas industry, and managers of convenience stores often earn more than factory workers.
The country has grown richer and as manufacturing jobs have moved overseas, the service sector has become the job market for younger potential workers. The “Tab A in Slot B” workaday just doesn’t interest the modern labor force accustomed to far more wealth, even in unemployment, than the farm kids who had to trade a horse-drawn plow and milking stool in 1941 for a rifle and a uniform.
Ultimately the Industrial Revolution continues. Manual labor (except for the trades that are an important part of manufacturing and maintaining flushing toilets, air conditioners and electric garage door openers — all part of post war affluence) is being replaced with machines and an ever-expanding digital industry.
While many in Gen Z and generations on either side don’t want the jobs of their parents, U.S. manufacturing will continue, but likely at the “hands” of robots.
If you disagree, take a look at a modern McDonalds restaurant. Kiosks are replacing counter order takers, and store designs are hinting of other things to come. One local Mickey Dees I frequent is a classic example. Walk in, place your order on a kiosk (or for the time being you still can get someone from the production line in back to take your order on a single digital cash register), pay, take your receipt and walk around to the side hallway and wait (alongside the Door Dash folks picking up mobile orders) to receive your neatly-packaged order and drink at a pickup counter — which easily could and likely will be automated in the near future. The signs are there. The only people currently necessary to prepare the order are “in back” for the most part, removed from human interaction with customers. And, there are machines that can cook hamburgers, assemble sandwiches and dunk fries. The $25 per hour burger flipper may only survive in California … but the rest of the world is likely to be served by machines programmed and maintained by a highly-trained staff of systems engineers and digital technicians.
Big Macs & Industrial Equipment?
All this to say, as assembly line jobs replaced hand-labor on farms, robotics will continue to largely leave the service sector (outside the fast-food example) to humans.
Recently H2 Clipper, a company specializing in hydrogen-based transportation and infrastructure — they currently build dirigibles among other things — was granted patents for use of autonomous and semi-autonomous robotic swarms in large-scale aircraft and aerospace production.
“This marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of aerospace and aviation manufacturing,” says Rinaldo Brutoco, H2C founder and CEO. “By replacing traditional assembly lines with robotic swarms, this breakthrough enables aircraft and large aerospace assets to be built faster, at a significantly lower cost, and with far greater precision.”
The robots work as a team, each handling different tasks such as assembling the airframe, attaching the outer shell, installing inside parts, and checking work quality on-the-go. The system is powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), which helps the squad of robots improve productivity over time by reducing mistakes while staying on schedule. The robots can also adjust their actions automatically to make sure assembled parts fit perfectly with one another.
Because there are no fixed assembly lines — ala multi-acre factory footprints — the system can be operated remotely and expanded to different locations easily.
“Conservative estimates based on current aerospace production benchmarks suggest this approach can reduce total manufacturing costs by 40% or more, and cut production time by up to 60%, while improving build quality,” Brutoco explains.
H2C builds airships, but the technology it employs paves the way for other forward-thinking OEMs (agriculture and construction equipment makers?) to take part in the rebirth of U.S. manufacturing. In the face of fewer applicants applying for factory work, the use of “swarms” of mechanical “workers” that can operate 24/7 with no HR complaints can make economic sense in rebuilding the nation’s manufacturing capacity.