“Farm cash receipts have historically been among the best predictors of large ag equipment sales,” says Robert McCarthy, analyst for RW Baird. For 2010, total farm receipts (farmer revenue) which the USDA expects to rise slightly — about 2% to $303 billion — during the coming year.

John Deere, on the other hand, is forecasting total farm receipts to come in at about $308 billion.

The projected increase is based on rising livestock receipts, which are forecast to rebound in the coming year by 10%.

But where the rubber hits the road for large equipment sales is in crop receipts, which according to McCarthy, are expected to decline by 4% following a falloff of 9% in 2009 to $160 billion. Deere projects $166 bllion.

Following is a summary of Deere and USDA 2010 farm receipts forecast in billions of dollars.

Deere & Co.
                                             2008    2009    2010

Crop Receipts                         $183    $168    $166
Livestock Receipts                  $141    $121    $132
Government Payments            $12    $12    $10
Total Farm Cash Receipts        $336    $331    $308
Year-Over-Year Growth            12%    (11%)    2%

USDA

Crop Receipts                         $183    $166    $160
Livestock Receipts                  $141    $119    $130
Government Payments            $12    $13    $12
Total Farm Cash Receipts        $336    $331    $308
Year-Over-Year Growth            12%    (11%)    2%