According to the European Union’s August 24 Joint Research Center’s MARS Bulletin, persistent heat and exceptional water deficits have substantially worsened summer crop prospects across western and most of central Europe, reducing fertility and biomass accumulation, impairing grain filling and accelerating senescence.

EU Summer Crop Yields Fall Below 5-Year Average Amid Severe Weather Map.jpg

According to the report, impacts range from moderate yield reductions to severe losses, with crop failure likely in the worst-affected regions. Although summer crop conditions remain more favorable in parts of northern and eastern Europe, EU yield forecasts for all summer crops have been sharply reduced, falling below the five-year average by up to 14%.

With harvesting largely completed, yield prospects for most winter cereals have been confirmed around the five-year average at the EU level. 

Cooler and wetter conditions forecast across much of western and central Europe may provide some relief, although too late to compensate for the losses already sustained. Countries listed as having severe impacts include France, southern Germany, northern and central Italy, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary and western Romania. 

On August 17, CEMA, the European Agricultural Machinery Association, released its Business Barometer. According to the report, the general business climate index for the European ag machinery industry has improved, despite remaining in negative territory. This follows the sharp declines recorded in recent months, which had pushed the sector back into recession after just over a year. The index rose from -19 to -14 points on a scale from -100 to +100.

EU Summer Crop Yields Fall Below 5-Year Average Amid Severe Weather Chart.jpg

The recent downturn was driven by a marked deterioration in both the assessment of current business and turnover expectations. The improvement in July is due entirely to renewed confidence regarding the next 6 months, while current business remains weak.

With a view to the European market, Scandinavia, the UK and Ireland lead the confidence ranking, whereas negative expectations for major markets such as Poland and France have been confirmed once again. 

We will watch for the September barometer, which may better show the impacts of the crop loss on sentiment in the equipment sector. 

Watch the full version of this episode of On The Record