Baird Equity Research reported that this week’s Crop Progress report showed corn and soybeans improving 1% compared to last week. Corn and soybeans conditions G/EX increased 1% compared to last week. Weather has stayed hot, with rain expected east of Minnesota but warm and dry in Nebraska and Dakota. Pricing continues to run below breakeven levels (less than $5 for corn, $13 for soybeans); but Baird states we are entering a crucial stage for crops since heat and moisture balance can fluctuate.
Baird analysts indicate that the crop conditions G/EX had modest improvement the past week, continuing to show healthy crop conditions. Areas experiencing greater stress are primarily located in marginal production regions, including Texas, North Carolina and Colorado.
The report highlights that the surge in grain prices is in response to hotter weather in the Midwest and growing concerns about crop conditions in Europe. The coming weeks will be important due to corn entering silking stage and soybeans beginning to set pods. Crop yields become sensitive to the balance between heat and available moisture, raising the potential for weather-driven volatility in commodity markets.
What Baird is watching: the report says the next five days are expected to receive rainfall across majority of top-producing states, with exceptions of North and South Dakota and Nebraska. These three states are expecting minimum rain with Nebraska starting to experience some drought. Since all three states are top-10 producers, Baird said any yield losses could have an impact on the overall size of U.S. crop. Nebraska remains the firm's primary concern, with corn crop G/E trailing last year's levels by 14%, and soybean down 6%.
