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Farmland and machinery values are particularly important in determining farms’ capacity to refinance or restructure debt during periods of negative profits, notes Ty Kreitman, associate economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

He says, this chart shows that most farms would only become exposed to financial stress if increased collateralization of losses corresponded with rapid declines in asset values. The median farm had a debt-to-asset ratio near 45% in 2025 — the black black on this chart. For those farms to reach high leverage, land values and machinery would need to decline by 35% and intermediate and long-term debt would also need to increase by 35% — the dotted line crossing into the light green area. 

The average high-leverage farm had a 70% debt-to-asset ratio in 2025. To approach insolvency, these farms would need to see a 20% decline in land and machinery values combined with a 20% increase in intermediate and long-term debt — the solid black line crossing into dark green area. 

Such a rapid pace of debt accumulation and asset depreciation, he says,  has not been seen since the 1980s farm crisis, when prolonged and severe losses drove rapid debt accumulation and widespread asset liquidation.

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