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The volume of U.S. meat exports in major categories is projected to grow through 2035, according to USDA long-term projection data. Rising incomes abroad and a projected weakening of the U.S. dollar are expected to boost demand for U.S. red meat and poultry. In 2024, U.S. pork exports surpassed chicken exports for the first time since 1976, and this development is projected to continue through 2035.
Steady growth in U.S. pork production, driven by a combination of increasing slaughter weights, rising numbers of pigs per litter, and higher inventories underlie the continued growth in exports. Environmental policies in the European Union (EU) are expected to impact the region’s pork production and reduce EU export growth, enhancing U.S. competitiveness. U.S. pork exports are projected to increase 8.6 percent from an expected 7.2 billion pounds in 2026 to a projected 7.8 billion pounds by 2035. By 2029, U.S. pork exports are expected to surpass the previous record of 7.3 billion pounds set in 2020, when China’s import demand spiked at the height of their African swine fever epidemic.
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