While our latest Dealer Sentiments & Business Conditions Report show that dealers sales forecast for 2025 remained unchanged in June at down 12%, some dealers are considering lowering their outlook. 

At the start of the year, dealers were forecasting sales to be down 10% this year, which had been the case looking back to the fourth quarter of 2024. Since February, however, that forecast has held steady at down 12%. 

In the latest survey, however, one dealer said: "Early order program price increases were higher than we expected compounded with less discounts and mitigated funds has pretty much halted any momentum that we started to see. We are now considering lowering our full year outlook on new and used sales if something does change on pricing.”

Another dealer noted that Case IH continues to raise prices and cut discounts across equipment and said “it is putting more pressure on equipment sales in an already depressed market.” 

One Deere dealer noted that the OEM continues to match the dealership’s pool funds, “ primarily to help dealers move used inventory.” 

Overall, commentary suggests incentive programs appear to be slowing month-over-month across OEMs despite depressed farmer sentiment. Early order programs are showing pricing up about 3.5% year-over-year. Dealers who responded to the survey suggest that tariff related price increases are likely baked into model year 2026 pricing. 

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