The June 29, 2026 USDA Crop Progress report show corn condition in the good to excellent (G/EX) category was -1% vs. last week (-6% year-over-year). Similarly, soybeans were also -1% compared to last week and -1% year-over-year. Both corn and soybeans are just shy of consensus, Baird analyst Mig Dobre said in a note to investors.
"Modest rain and hot weather is in the forecast this week across key corn/soy states," he says. "Prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks with Corn (nearing $4/bu.) and Soybeans ($11/bu.) running well below breakeven levels (>$5 Corn, $13 Soybeans) needed for incremental equipment investment."
Dobre noted that crop conditions are just shy of consensus estimates but are overall in good shape. This week, 67% of corn was rated G/E (just below consensus of 68%), soybeans 65% G/E (just below consensus of 66%).
According to Dobre, "crop prices are likely to remain range bound; prices are now well below breakeven levels absent weather catalyst. Crop prices sharply declined in recent weeks with Corn hovering around $4.10/bu. while soybeans have pulled back to $11.10/bu. after spiking to nearly $12.50/bu. earlier this month.
"Prices are now well below breakeven levels (we estimate >$5/bu. for corn and $13/bu. for soybeans)," he said. "We are entering the key portion of the growing season (July), condition reports in the coming weeks (particularly given hot weather this next week across key states) will be main items to watch; for now, >65% G/EX (indicating above-average crop) continue to read favorably for yields with corn stocks in particular expected to remain elevated — we will hear more on this in tomorrow's USDA report."
