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In this episode hosts Casey Seymour and Aaron Fintel of Moving Iron LLC discuss the used planter market and how quiet it was at the end of 2021 and what it has looked like the first few weeks of 2022 and what they are expecting to see this fall. They also touch on the used combine market and what we can expect to see in that segment this year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Farm Equipment‘s podcast, Used Equipment Remarketing Roadmaps, is brought to you by Agrisolutions.

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Agrisolutions is the market leader in wearable parts, components, accessories and solutions for tillage, seeding, planting, fertilizing, hardware and inventory management solutions. Improve performance and durability with a wide range of in-field and extended life solutions.

To learn more about Agrisolutions and their globally recognized brands, such as Bellota, Ingersoll Tillage and Trinity Logistics, visit Agrisolutionscorp.com.

 

 

Full Transcript

Kim Schmidt:

Hi, I'm Kim Schmidt, executive editor of Farm Equipment. Welcome to Farm Equipment's Used Equipment Remarketing Roadmaps podcast. In this episode, hosts Casey Seymour and Aaron Fintel of Moving Iron LLC discuss the use planter market and how quiet it was at end of 2021, and what it has looked like for the first few weeks of 2022. Before we head over to Casey and Aaron, I wanted to thank our sponsor, Agrisolutions. Agrisolutions is the market leader in wearable parts, components, accessories, and solutions for tillage seating, planting, fertilizing hardware, and inventory management solutions. Improve performance and durability with a wide range of infield and extended life solutions. To learn more about solutions and their globally recognized brands such as Bellota, Ingersoll Tillage, and Trinity Logistics, visit agrisolutionscorp.com. And if this is your first time listening, you can subscribe to the podcast on any of your favorite podcast platforms. Okay. Let's get things going. Here's Casey and Aaron talking about the use planter market and what things may look like this fall.

Casey Seymour:

So now this week, Aaron is with me again. We're going to spend a little time kind of discussing here what we see happening in the marketplace. We've done a lot of reflection on 2021 and what we think 2022 is going to be. So now we're just going to talk about what's happening, right? So I think if you take a look at what's going on out there, I feel like we should talk about tractors and planters and those kind of things as we're heading into fall. But, man, I think the story right now, in my book-

Aaron Fintel:

Let's head into spring, though, before we head into fall.

Casey Seymour:

Okay. Let's do that. Heading into spring-

Aaron Fintel:

Northern hemisphere.

Casey Seymour:

Northern hemisphere. The planter markets hit that one for a little bit. The planter market, when you take a look what's going on there, it is oddly quiet but equally as loud. Does that make sense?

Aaron Fintel:

Yeah, I get it.

Casey Seymour:

Sometimes I feel like customers that we talk to that have been looking for planters but just can't find them. Mi just like they're like the people in the unemployment number that just quit looking for a job, so don't count them anymore.

Aaron Fintel:

Right. Yeah, exactly.

Casey Seymour:

That's kind of where we're out here with guys with planters. I mean, I think there's a lot of guys... I had a guy stop in the office the other day. Comes in and talks to me about this thing. [inaudible 00:02:16] we have a 1720 stack fold in the back and he's interested in that planter, "What do you take for it?" And ran through the whole game. And I'm talking to him, so I was like. "What are you using to run it with?" Because this guy kind of looks like he might be running a 4960 or something like that. And it's 16-row planter, you know? And he goes, "I got a 8410," right? And I'm like, "Ah, maybe. I don't know. Let's take a look."

Casey Seymour:

So you kind of start running through stuff and looking at a few things, and, lo behold... I mean, what that planter requires for hydraulic capacity and what the biggest pump invented on the 8410 at the time is still about 15 gallon per [inaudible 00:03:01].

Aaron Fintel:

Exactly.

Casey Seymour:

So the guy went, "It's not the prettiest planter in the world. It needs a lot of work. There's a lot of things needs to go wrong... needs fixing." T.

Aaron Fintel:

Hat needs to go wrong? I mean, no, that part's already handled.

Casey Seymour:

It's already handled. But after we had that conversation, just the, "Oh, I finally found one. Yeah," To like, "No, it won't work."

Aaron Fintel:

Right.

Casey Seymour:

And I go, "Well, I'm sure we got some 12-rows." We ran through the DRs and the DR12s, DR16s took up something like that, going through a 1720 12-row. Dude, we had three planners to pick from. Three. That one, another 16-row and like 1770 something. I don't know how big 1770 was, but it didn't have any 12-rows. And the ones that we did say we kind of had, you go read the notes in them. They're like, "Yeah. Pre-sold. Pre-sold. Pre-sold." And so-

Aaron Fintel:

And if it's traded in, it may or may not be available sometime between June 1st and September 29th.

Casey Seymour:

Right. And that's really... that's a weird scenario to be in.

Aaron Fintel:

It's funny that you say quiet and loud at the same time, because dipping in both worlds, you're exactly right. The retail side, the end users, the buyers, that has been very quiet on planters since the end of the year.

Casey Seymour:

Right.

Aaron Fintel:

And honestly end of the year was nothing crazy.

Casey Seymour:

By Christmas. Right.

Aaron Fintel:

The first to the 23rd? Wow. Still catching breath. And then it was really like, "Hold onto your hat. Christmas to New Year's is going to be crazy," and it wasn't.

Casey Seymour:

Yeah.

Aaron Fintel:

It was crazy dead.

Casey Seymour:

Right.

Aaron Fintel:

And it was like, "Man, finally, everybody's got their stuff." At least for where they're at now, they're good. And then that first couple days of January, just crazy. It didn't matter what it was.

Casey Seymour:

Right.

Aaron Fintel:

It was like, "Phew, here we go again." Everybody truly took [inaudible 00:05:20] and probably so with Rona.

Casey Seymour:

Yeah. Yeah.

Aaron Fintel:

It was the first time in two years for friends and family in a lot of parts of the world. And you put that together? Yeah, it's quiet. But then you get those first couple days, it's wild, it's wild. Now, it's kind of normal as normal as normal can be, you know? The amount of stuff going daily, if not, maybe a little quiet. But on the dealer side, obviously, because none of us have anything and we're all looking for the same stuff every minute of every day, it's crazy. And especially, especially planters.

Aaron Fintel:

I have this planner. It's available in May. Might not actually be traded in. "Send me a PO." "Okay, then. Let's do it."

Casey Seymour:

It's amazing. How much of that's going on? Three years ago, could you imagine that?

Aaron Fintel:

Oh I know.

Casey Seymour:

Oh yeah. I'll go ahead and just... I mean, there's so many unknown variables here, but I'm going to say yes to it. Yeah, it makes sense. And now, I mean, that's on any platform. It doesn't matter if it's a tractor or-

Aaron Fintel:

Oh, no.

Casey Seymour:

If it's the one they want or one they're looking for-

Aaron Fintel:

I've even noticed of all things on earth side by sides, the amount of online inquiries on a daily basis on side-by-side is quintuple. The highest point ever in history.

Casey Seymour:

Yeah. There's been a lot of people that have done that. Because if anything out there that is hard to get right now, the ATV market, UTV market is almost nonexistent. I don't know how Honda stay in the business.

Aaron Fintel:

Right.

Casey Seymour:

You know what I mean?

Aaron Fintel:

Exactly.

Casey Seymour:

I don't know what they're doing because they're sure not shipping machines out, you know?

Aaron Fintel:

HTL35 baby.

Casey Seymour:

You can't even get one of those. So that's-

Aaron Fintel:

I know a guy.

Casey Seymour:

You got one in the show [inaudible 00:07:30] still, so yeah, benign it-

Aaron Fintel:

There you go.

Casey Seymour:

... for the tall grass.

Aaron Fintel:

Tall grass baby. [crosstalk 00:07:38] Hashtag tall grass.

Casey Seymour:

Yeah. So we'll see what happens there. But no, I think going forward, as you look into your crystal ball, to me, I see a huge, huge, huge, huge, huge, huge uptick in planter activity right after harvest is done.

Aaron Fintel:

This year?

Casey Seymour:

Right after planting seasons done. And all of those planters... Because all those new ones are going to get delivered.

Aaron Fintel:

There's a lot of new planters that are not going to plant in '22 nationwide.

Casey Seymour:

Yeah.

Aaron Fintel:

Nationwide.

Casey Seymour:

Nationwide. Yeah. And I think there's plenty of those out there that are going to have that little bit of timeframe that they got [inaudible 00:08:20] into and they're going to run them again. Some are going to be late. Some are going to show up on time. There's this whole game, but stuff is going to happen. But if you take a look at the used equipment that's coming back behind those, I think they'll be... it'll look like a Black Friday in New York City with people lined up at the door, running over each.

Aaron Fintel:

For the years, planters when they're finally available.

Casey Seymour:

Yep.

Aaron Fintel:

And as we do early order for 23s because you're getting two trade cycles of planters at one time. Think of that.

Casey Seymour:

Yep. That's true.

Aaron Fintel:

If they're caught up. If they caught up. If. If.

Casey Seymour:

And-

Aaron Fintel:

Which begs the reason if regardless of Keller, new planners are showing up in June. And that's when everybody's really order it regardless of Keller. That is a little bit of a problem.

Casey Seymour:

Yeah. Yeah. I think there's a-

Aaron Fintel:

That coincides with Casey's, "We're in this market until 2075."

Casey Seymour:

Historically, though, if you look at after planting season, there's a lot of used planters that get sold anyway.

Aaron Fintel:

Absolutely.

Casey Seymour:

So now, there's-

Aaron Fintel:

We've talked about that on here before.

Casey Seymour:

Sure.

Aaron Fintel:

I remember that because the used buyers have figured out, "Well, I want the ultimate and used planters. I know I can't have it. I can't even begin to dream of putting it in my shed until next February. I want that planter. I want that DR24 high speed. So yeah, put my name on it."

Casey Seymour:

Yep. And I think that's where-

Aaron Fintel:

And in fact, it's almost...

Casey Seymour:

And that's the one unique thing about planners as well is that you're vouching for something that you're not going to get for a year.

Aaron Fintel:

Right.

Casey Seymour:

Or until the new one shows up, right? I mean the new one shows up in January then you're... whatever happens, but it's a...

Aaron Fintel:

You're right. Guys will give up a combine, give up a tractor. Not this year. But typically, they'll always give up a combine. Combine is never a, "Not until it's in my shed," because it's combine. Rent one or whatever, call a guy. And then tractor a little less so, but usually... Well, in case in point, usually, there's never a problem because of production capabilities. But now, we're in a world where, like you were saying, even in free flowing days of iron, the planter doesn't leave. Everything on that farm can leave, but not that planner because that's my planter. It's set up how I want it. It's just too unique to every farm. Every little nuance on that machine, they look the same. I hate Martins. I want the other. I will not run those Martins. They're both floaty row cleaners with the air cylinders. I don't care.

Kim Schmidt:

We'll get back to Casey and Aaron in a moment. But first, I wanted to pause to thank our sponsor Agrisolutions. To learn more, visit agrisolutionscorp.com. Now back to Casey and Aaron, as they continue their discussion, talking about the uniqueness planters have to a farmer's operation, and the overall impact the tool has on the rest of the growing season. They also get into the 2022 you sed combine market.

Casey Seymour:

The one thing about a planter that's unique to everything else around it... with the exception of a few things. But if you miss a plant window by a day, that has a significant impact on your-

Aaron Fintel:

Right.

Casey Seymour:

And the other side of that, too, is, "You know what? My planter's [inaudible 00:12:26] my neighbor, so he'd come help me plant," after you got done planting his, right?

Aaron Fintel:

Mm-hmm (affirmative).

Casey Seymour:

Now, combine, you say, "Well, yeah, you got a window. I'm sure you do." There's-

Aaron Fintel:

That ear is not doing anything until it falls on the ground.

Casey Seymour:

Right. Like wheat, you know? But there's a timeframe.

Aaron Fintel:

Oh yeah.

Casey Seymour:

With wheat, you got a timeframe there that you got to pay attention to, and you fight spring storms and those kind of things. But even if you get a blizzard that rolls through and during Corona harvest... and it's not always a bad thing, right? It makes things tough, depending on what happens, [crosstalk 00:12:57] what the snow is, and those kind of.

Aaron Fintel:

Right. What's the weather after.

Casey Seymour:

Right. And those are a few things that really kind of have some detriment there. But a planter is the one thing that... I mean, if you don't have a planner, you really don't need a combine.

Aaron Fintel:

Right. Sure.

Casey Seymour:

[inaudible 00:13:13] sprayer, right?

Aaron Fintel:

Yep.

Casey Seymour:

I guess you could have a tractor to go back in and just keep disking your field over and over again, but...

Aaron Fintel:

And in return, that just does not pencil for shit.

Casey Seymour:

No, it doesn't.

Aaron Fintel:

It doesn't.

Casey Seymour:

No, it really doesn't.

Aaron Fintel:

Man.

Casey Seymour:

I mean, the planner is just that thing out there that it's so hard to say because even when we were flooded with planters, how many people were knocking on your door saying, "Hey, I'd like to rent my planter"?

Aaron Fintel:

Right? Exactly.

Casey Seymour:

You know what I mean? No, I don't think I've ever heard anybody ask to do that.

Aaron Fintel:

I've had that come up a couple times, but it was like dire straits. "Well, no, we're back to the nuances." "Okay. All right. Well, I want to rent that planner because I like that fertilizer system." Okay. Now, we got to figure out how all that runs. Make sure it works because you can't just, "Okay. We'll deliver it and it's your baby." Good luck, sir. You got to figure all that out and you just hear that cash register ringing every time you got four guys standing there plugging in hoses. I don't care if it's labeled perfect. You're figuring shit. It's not their planter, you know? They're taxed. They're figuring it out. And it's, oh... it's just insane.

Casey Seymour:

Right. Yep.

Aaron Fintel:

It is a losing, losing battle. And and that's why that doesn't happen very often because on our side of the fence, there's literally no way that could end at will, right?

Casey Seymour:

True. True. SO now, I mean, basically I think we're kind of the same place. A bit of a lull haired planners because I feel like guys have just kind of said, "I'm going to wait until the planting season and see what happens."

Aaron Fintel:

Yep.

Casey Seymour:

Two guys are going to keep looking. They're going to find something and whatever, but they're going to wait to see after what happens during planting season and then what that looks like and all those things. I think the next story of 2022 is the combine market. And the combine market is almost to the point where it's literally down to just the bottom of the barrel as to what's left. There's still some quality stuff out there. You got to look online and see some lower hour stuff and know that stuff's available.

Aaron Fintel:

It's available by fall. By fall. Not for wheat. Not for wheat. Get the old 9760, another [inaudible 00:15:42] in the sun because that's your wheat machine. However, it's not... Combines are as beautiful John Conley song title could put. There is rose colored glasses as they could be as I've ever seen it. And unfortunately, my stupid 10-year-old-self could probably tell you what the common [inaudible 00:16:09] was back then. But anyway, it is as rose-colored glasses as ever. And it's a long ways from any molecule of concern in my mind of, "Oh, what are we going to do?" It still the combine market. Of everything that is flying, you can't get, you can't have, blah, blah, blah, combines are still combines.

Casey Seymour:

I mean, I would agree with you.

Aaron Fintel:

There is beautiful and peachy and wonderful as there ever, ever, ever have been. Ever. But that market versus tractors, that market versus sprayers, that market versus planters, there's the no combines.

Casey Seymour:

The argument you're making is why they have weight classes in wrestling.

Aaron Fintel:

Okay. Well, being a heavyweight myself, that's what I pay attention to.

Casey Seymour:

I mean even if you put a heavyweight against a 97-pounder, right? The heavyweight's going to win every time.

Aaron Fintel:

Hmm, should.

Casey Seymour:

I mean, unless they start doing some Brazilian jiu-jitsu where size doesn't matter and it's all about leverage and body position, right? Have you ever... Okay, so I take jiu-jitsu, right? And I don't know anything about jiu-jitsu [inaudible 00:17:31] horrible at it because it's one of those things that you have to do all the time or you just... There's a reason why state champion wrestlers started wrestling when they were six or four or whatever. You learn all that stuff and these different things happen. So-

Aaron Fintel:

[inaudible 00:17:49] 13-0 last year in the 33-pounds. Way to go Tommy.

Casey Seymour:

So I was, I was rolling against the guy who was a purple belt, right? So there goes white, blue, purple, brown, black, right? Those are the belts. So I'm white belt. This guy weighed-

Aaron Fintel:

What's the first belt?

Casey Seymour:

White.

Aaron Fintel:

White. And you're at what belt?

Casey Seymour:

White.

Aaron Fintel:

Okay.

Casey Seymour:

And really, I'm actually an invisible belt. It was really close pin. That's what I was [inaudible 00:18:13].

Aaron Fintel:

A clear plastic strap.

Casey Seymour:

And so I'm stronger than the guy that I was going against and I outweighed him by about 75 pounds, right? Now, what I found out pretty early was-

Aaron Fintel:

Did he flip you up in the air?

Casey Seymour:

He tried real hard, but he couldn't quite do it. We got down and he had me in his guard and I took my hands and I just pressed him against the mat and just held him there.

Aaron Fintel:

Oh, you lined him?

Casey Seymour:

Yeah.

Aaron Fintel:

You did.

Casey Seymour:

I'm just going to ride this out for as long as I can. Sooner later that's going to be a joint that gets dislocated, but I'm going to do this for as long as I can. Okay. That's the same concept, right? So if you have-

Aaron Fintel:

Did you feel like you're rolling up on a pancake block, but it was like halfway already happened and be like, "Oh, I'm going to finish this."

Casey Seymour:

I felt like I was just waiting for it. "Blow the whistle! Blow the whistle!" But the thing about a combine versus a tractor versus plenty of other other things is that there's a stigma in a lot of people's mind right now that... Customers said the other day, "What, a combines tight right now?" I walked out and I'm like, "What? Remember that wind row we had over here? Do you see it anymore?" [inaudible 00:19:31]. I mean, there's a stigma in people's mind right now with combines is that, "Well, there's always combines, right? I rent one every fall or I get extra one for wheat or whatever it is." There's always that notion there.

Casey Seymour:

There's a lot of guys that have farming operations totally built around, "I've got my two combines or my one combine and I rent one, and then have the custom guy come in and pick up some slack [inaudible 00:19:53]."

Aaron Fintel:

Right. Yeah.

Casey Seymour:

They built their whole thing around that. The combine market right now, unlike the tractor market or any of those other things, is that there is a great divide between what's available. Right? There are hardly any machines right now that you're going to have going into spring that are, quote-unquote, late model, low hour machines. Right? There's not-

Aaron Fintel:

Going into spring? Yeah.

Casey Seymour:

There's not going to be those pile of 150 or 200 hour or whatever machines, right?

Aaron Fintel:

To say, yeah, Sub 300.

Casey Seymour:

Right. If you wanted a available combine a day, you're getting once a thousand-plus hours on it. That's your available combine. Yeah. And even at a thousand-

Aaron Fintel:

Over five for a day. Yeah. Over five, for sure.

Casey Seymour:

I bet you, even at a thousand hours, you're hard pressed to find one that's available right now. I'm talking like 750 to a thousand.

Aaron Fintel:

They're out there, but then we get into the discussion of, "Why those dollars for that machine?" Which there is an endless string of right now all over the... That's a world we're in, you know? So I think those machines are out there and the amount... You're exactly right. The amount of them that you can have to cut wheat in Texas, this May, there's probably two, right? And they're still there because they weren't the cheapest to a promise. So you have that realm and then you have the rest in that five to a thousand range. There are still some deals out there in that realm, and it's just a matter of the same thing we see every year where the Sub 3s... The first one's gone, and they are all gone. Right?

Casey Seymour:

Yeah. Sure. Yeah.

Aaron Fintel:

The five to a thousand, those are the ones that were always the bridesmaid, never the bride. And now it's your day, little girl. Get on up there. I think that is a very, very big part of the combine market right now.

Casey Seymour:

Okay. So the combine market. So we're going to look at something here. The hour range, these stuff's listed out here on the internet as of the first of this month, okay? So if you're looking at combines right now, total machines listed out there between 500 going to 1000 hours. There are 900, 1490-ish combines in that realm. Right? Now, that's what's listed, doesn't mean it's available.

Aaron Fintel:

Right.

Casey Seymour:

Right?

Aaron Fintel:

All right.

Casey Seymour:

So let's just assume that all of these combines right here, that 50% of them are available today.

Aaron Fintel:

Correct.

Casey Seymour:

Right? Okay. So you have 700 combines in that bracket that are available today. Go back a month in time and see what that looked like there. So you have the same deal. You've got roughly about the same, a hundred less machines on the market than there were this month right now.

Aaron Fintel:

Right.

Casey Seymour:

Right. So there's more machines listed out than there were last month. Now, what's that mean to me? To me, I still think that even that spec of machine... Because right now, there's like the zero to 300 range. There's 200 and 320-ish, 315 machines listed out there between zero and 300. I'd be willing to bet that of those 300 combines, less than a hundred of them are available right now.

Aaron Fintel:

Oh, absolutely. Now, your data proves me wrong. Okay? In the 500 to a thousand, it's their day finally. It's their day because the others aren't there.

Casey Seymour:

Right. Because [inaudible 00:23:59]...

Aaron Fintel:

But here's the other thing. Those numbers went up, right? Last month to this month. That proves me wrong. However, that is the combine 500 to a thousand that 90... maybe not 90. 80% of custom harvesters trade in. And most of them do their role year end.

Casey Seymour:

Oh yeah, sure. I'm not-

Aaron Fintel:

So there you go. There might have been a flush of 2000 out, but, "Oh, shit. 2,500 back," you know?

Casey Seymour:

Right. January, February, March are always the highest volume right of combines. It's always that way. So the point that I want to make clear here, everybody, is that the reason why those machines are going to be worth more now is because that's your choice. If you're in the market to buy... because I can tell you, guys are thinking this. Somebody's out there thinking, and the more guys that are not thinking this. I've got a 2000-hour combine, a 2,500-hour combine, a 1500-hour combine. And I typically run my combine for five years. Buy it with 500 hours on it or 300 hours on it or something like that. I run it for four or five or six years, then I go back in and buy a 300-hour or a 500-hour one, whatever.

Casey Seymour:

Well, this is my clocks up. Now, I'm going to go back and do this now. I'm going to run that combine for a year this season, and then I'm going to trade it back in of get my 300-hour run, and then go back to my six-year run or five-year run or whatever it is, and put that 1500-hours on my combine.

Aaron Fintel:

I, honestly, personally wish there was more of that because the-

Casey Seymour:

I think you're going to see that.

Aaron Fintel:

... guy who does that, who figures that out, he's going to have like three years of doing something for nothing, essentially.

Casey Seymour:

Yeah. I mean for a hell lot less than they've done it in the past, right?

Aaron Fintel:

Right. Exactly.

Casey Seymour:

And that's my point is that... kind of we talked about a podcast or two ago when the guys from... Kyle May was telling me that tractor.

Aaron Fintel:

Yeah. The percentage jump month to month, and then the year to year was flabbergasting.

Casey Seymour:

The one piece of information that was [inaudible 00:26:18] back and looked us up after I recorded that and got it all up there, was that from the hours in 2020 for tractors 300 hours or less was X. And 2021, the hour range would jumped up a whole thousand hours. So it went from zero to 300 to a thousand to 1500, and the price stayed the same.

Aaron Fintel:

Gotcha. Well, that would coincide with-

Casey Seymour:

In 2021, they were still paying the same amount of money for a 1500-hour, 1000-hour to 1500-hour tractor that they were paying for a 300-hour tractor in '20. And the exact same number, machines are on the marketplace. That transactional period. Okay? Now I bet, if you went back and did a synthesis on this stuff here, that you would find that the same thing was happening with combines.

Aaron Fintel:

If you did that same synthesis, could you play the opening part to jump?

Casey Seymour:

You could if you really tried hard. Or maybe even like-

Aaron Fintel:

If you can do that, the synthesis on the combines is far more interesting because you could do that on the combines, get some great data, figure it all out, be nerd bombers like us. But if you could play the intro to jump with that same synthesis? There you go.

Casey Seymour:

You can synthesize that information and come out with different-

Aaron Fintel:

Oh snap.

Casey Seymour:

There you go. There you go. You could even do [inaudible 00:27:54] Beverly Hills Cop.

Aaron Fintel:

Yeah.

Casey Seymour:

You can throw a little Miami Vice in there, too, if you wanted to... It's more electric drum synthesis than it is-

Aaron Fintel:

Oh, absolutely.

Casey Seymour:

Big 80s. Big in the 80s.

Aaron Fintel:

Absolutely. [crosstalk 00:28:12] Because why wouldn't you be a cop and drive a Ferrari Testarossa?

Casey Seymour:

Exactly. You know where-

Aaron Fintel:

Testarossa not Testrosta.

Casey Seymour:

Do you know where Don Johnson's from?

Aaron Fintel:

It's got to be Kansas. [crosstalk 00:28:29].

Casey Seymour:

[inaudible 00:28:29].

Aaron Fintel:

Yeah. There you go. Oh, man. I guess where [inaudible 00:28:36] are built in Dutcher. Boo y'all. I can't help you to bet on that. The world's largest broom factory.

Casey Seymour:

So back to combines, we were... If you really step back and take a look at what's going on there, I think, personally, that 500 to 1000-hour machine, if they're available, are going to be gobbled up as fast as any of the late model, low hour, zero to 300 type. It would be just this year. This year.

Aaron Fintel:

Right.

Casey Seymour:

Maybe in the next year.

Aaron Fintel:

And to use the wrestle analogy. Just because he's 275 and he made it to state doesn't mean that, at sub-districts and districts, there was no other heavyweights and he just automatically qualified. When it comes to the combine market, that's my analogy.

Casey Seymour:

I'll tell you the combine market right now, those 500-hour ones are the big athletic guys.

Aaron Fintel:

I understand that. I understand.

Casey Seymour:

They came to get some.

Aaron Fintel:

Yeah, they hit puberty last summer and they're-

Casey Seymour:

And they're here to do two things, two bubble gum and kick ass. And guess what? They're all out of bubble gum. So, I think, to me, that combine market is going to be surprisingly strong at the 500. I think, to me, if you have a machine that's got less than 500 hours on it that's available today that... I'm not saying that you can put whatever number on it you want. What I'm saying is that you're going to get an abnormally large premium for that machine because it's going to be one of very few.

Aaron Fintel:

I get that. I understand the combine market. You had enough to know that premium means that you're not going to lose money this year on it. So there we go.

Casey Seymour:

I think-

Aaron Fintel:

And I completely agree.

Casey Seymour:

I think it's a bit different than that.

Aaron Fintel:

No, I know. The rose colored glasses. I get it.

Casey Seymour:

They broke. They're actually a prescription glass now.

Aaron Fintel:

No, it is a fantastic market. It's the best it's ever been. But they're still... all I'm saying, dude, is they're still combines.

Casey Seymour:

I understand that, but when they-

Aaron Fintel:

Don't get carried away.

Casey Seymour:

If you go to the grocery store and there's only one can of corn left, you still think it's going to be worth 59 cents?

Aaron Fintel:

I don't care, dude. I ain't eating canned corn.

Casey Seymour:

You get my point though.

Aaron Fintel:

I do.

Casey Seymour:

Right? Whatever your favorite canned vegetable might be. You go to the grocery store and there's only one can of fruit cocktail left? It's very cherry, by the way. You got an extra cherry in there and not just the one [crosstalk 00:31:09].

Aaron Fintel:

Oh, I know it. Oh man. God damn. And I would go rounds as a child. Damn cherry man. There's a lot of blood spilled over that, half of maraschino cherry.

Casey Seymour:

To me, I think the combine market is further away. The most unpredictable market we're going to have right now moving forward.

Aaron Fintel:

Absolutely. I'll get on board with that. That makes-

Casey Seymour:

Unpredictable. Unpredictable because I don't think... I think what we see happening here is it's just going to be a domino effect to the end of the year. And even most of machines now... But between now and when they're legitimately available, are going to be spoken for.

Aaron Fintel:

Oh, yes. Absolutely.

Casey Seymour:

The low hour ones, especially. Right? I mean-

Aaron Fintel:

They already are.

Casey Seymour:

I mean, yeah. Except for the ones... I mean, the ones that are listed may or may not be, but some of those may be spoken for and they're like, "Oh, you know what? That was sold." And they're like, "Come check out my website page." You know what I mean?

Aaron Fintel:

Right.

Casey Seymour:

So there's some of that out there, too. I'm sure going on. But I think, to me, more than anything else that we seen laying out here is more than tried. I mean, [inaudible 00:32:15] tractors have established the fact that there's a tractor on a lot that no one has spoken for yet, and that's the one you want, you better just say yes.

Aaron Fintel:

Yeah.

Casey Seymour:

Run through the door as fast you can and just yell, "Yes!"

Aaron Fintel:

"Does that run? Yes, I'll take it."

Casey Seymour:

"[inaudible 00:32:30] the tractor. I'll take it." I mean, obviously that's been that way since spring.

Aaron Fintel:

Yeah.

Casey Seymour:

So I mean, that's a whole thing there. So long story short, planter marketplace... but I'm confident it's going to get wicked hot between the end of planting season and the end of the year. Right out of the gate, I think it's going to be just hot and and it'll stay that way.

Aaron Fintel:

Right.

Casey Seymour:

And then I think sprayers combines are going to become more and more and more and more unpredictable as far as where we need to be priced them at going through the end of the year.

Aaron Fintel:

Okay.

Casey Seymour:

Final thoughts, Aaron Fintel?

Aaron Fintel:

Tractors are going to stay as hot as they can because I think there's a lot of factors driving that beyond availability. And we'll touch on that next week. Planters, I totally agree. Combines, we have a different viewpoint, both agreeing that it's hot, but you're more optimistic than I am. Sprayers, we're going to touch on that next podcast as we get ever so closer, ever so closer to something growing, something turning green, and not seven layers of clothing. So yeah, I think that's kind of the deal, man.

Casey Seymour:

Right on. Well, good stopping point because Aaron already alluded to what we're doing next week. So I guess that's the official into the podcast. So folks [inaudible 00:34:06] want to reach out to you and get more information about what you got going on-

Aaron Fintel:

Co-host power.

Casey Seymour:

What's the best way to do that?

Aaron Fintel:

I am usually on Twitter. I'm still trying to work on that, but that's @AaronFintel, Aaron Fintel. Call me or text me (308) 760-1193.

Casey Seymour:

Right on. And you can find me at Moving Iron LLC about any of the stuff out there. The Facebook, the Twitter, the Instagram. Another the place you could also go and check me out is on my movingironll.com. Everything Moving Iron related is there. Check out the blogs, check out the history of the Moving Iron podcast. If you want to go back to the first time Aaron and I first had our very first podcast together-

Aaron Fintel:

Number eight.

Casey Seymour:

Number eight. Moving Iron podcast number eight. Go check that out. With that, I'm Casey Seymour with Aaron Fintel.

Kim Schmidt:

Thanks, Casey and Aaron. And thanks to Agrisolutions for sponsoring this podcast. We've got even more used equipment and remarketing resources that we're sending your way. In addition to this podcast, we're also tapping into Casey's expertise across all our informational channels. Find more from him in the print magazine and on farm-equipment.com/asktheexpert. And you can keep up on the latest industry news by registering online to receive our free newsletters. Visit www.farm-equipment.com. For Casey and Aaron, as well as our entire staff here at Farm Equipment, I'm Kim Schmidt. Thanks for listening.

Sound Effects: Jahzzar - Magic Mountain