During the last few years, we’ve had an ongoing conversation with Charlie Glass of the Glass Management Group (GMG) about farm equipment forecasts and OEM shipments to dealers vs. dealers’ retail sales. For several years Charlie has been developing his own annual outlook for tractor and combine unit sales, as well as field inventory and retail sales. It’s an interesting approach, so we have decided to share it with Farm Equipment’s readers on a monthly basis. We’ll update it with the “actuals” monthly as reported by the Assn. of Equipment Manufacturers. Charlie will also provide us with a brief monthly blog, which will review his forecast and developments he’s observed that impact ag machinery sales. For the record, Charlie has been working in the farm equipment industry for 40-plus years, he’s chairman emeritus of the Farm Equipment Manufacturers Assn.’s Dealer Relations Committee. He is currently one of the judges for both Farm Equipment’s and Rural Lifestyle Dealer’s Dealership of the Year programs. https://www.farm-equipment.com/rss en-us The limited cash available to farmers and ranchers in the U.S. will continue to put a dampener on the equipment markets in 2018 and 2019. The expanded depreciation programs that appeared in 2010 and reached its zenith in 2014 had the effect of pulling ahead purchases from future years. We are now enduring the results of that program. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/16215 Fri, 12 Oct 2018 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/16215-september-2018-tractor-combine-analysis Steel and aluminum prices will most certainly result in an increase in all farm equipment prices next year but our agricultural economy has been able to overcome those increases in the past and will most likely do so in the future. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/16076 Sat, 15 Sep 2018 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/16076-august-2018-tractor-combine-analysis The uncertainty that accompanied the current tariff disputes has produced a black cloud over future tractor and equipment sales. In spite of those concerns we continue to see some strength in the larger tractor categories and in combines this year. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/15947 Sat, 18 Aug 2018 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/15947-july-2018-tractor-combine-analysis The unknown resulting from the current trade negotiations have had a major impact on the positive feelings that existed just a few months ago. Farmers and ranchers are facing reduced incomes coupled with rising interest rates for their necessary operating capital and that does not produce a bright, cheery outlook. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/15851 Sun, 15 Jul 2018 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/15851-june-2018-tractor-and-combine-analysis The sudden increase in combine sales in the months of April and May of this year has created a great deal of head scratching around our office. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/15785 Tue, 03 Jul 2018 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/15785-combine-sales-soar-in-april-may-what-happened Our industry is navigating some very choppy waters as international trade negotiations continue. Uncertainty has created caution in farmers’ spending recently and most likely will continue until there is some resolution to the trade talks now underway. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/15744 Mon, 18 Jun 2018 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/15744-may-2018-tractor-combine-analysis China’s need for agricultural imports remains significant since they are faced with providing food for nearly one-third of the world’s population. The past decade has produced a growing middle class in China that has demonstrated an increased demand for not only basic foods, but also for high quality products that are only available from other parts of the world. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/15589 Sat, 12 May 2018 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/15589-april-2018-tractor-combine-analysis A trade war could absolutely have a negative effect on U.S. producers’ income in the future, but are there other circumstances to consider? http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/15478 Wed, 18 Apr 2018 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/15478-march-2018-tractor-combine-analysis The strength of the U.S. economy continues to provide support for the smaller tractor sales but the recent declines in the stock markets will have a sobering effect upon some future purchases. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/15328 Sat, 17 Mar 2018 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/15328-february-2018-tractor-combine-analysis Our database for tractor retail sales and field inventory is derived from AEM’s monthly Flash Reports. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/15199 Fri, 16 Feb 2018 00:00:00 -0500 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/15199-january-2018-tractor-combine-sales-analysis Charles-Glass-Photo---Sept-2017.jpg 2017 was a paradoxical year with jubilation in the small tractor camp with the larger tractor purveyors significantly less joyous. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/15071 Sun, 14 Jan 2018 00:00:00 -0500 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/15071-december-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charles-Glass-Photo---Sept-2017.jpg Looking back, 2017 will most likely be viewed as the turning point in agricultural equipment sales for this cycle. While there will probably remain some weakness in the larger tractors and combines in 2018, there are definite signs of a bottom developing. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/14946 Fri, 15 Dec 2017 00:00:00 -0500 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/14946-november-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charles-Glass-Photo---Sept-2017.jpg Our models track commodity prices, international currency exchange rates, total number of farms, total number of farms by gross production value. Here is our 2018 U.S. forecast and the rationale of how we arrived at those numbers. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/14858 Fri, 24 Nov 2017 00:00:00 -0500 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/14858-annual-tractor-combine-retail-sales-forecast Charles-Glass-Photo---Sept-2017.jpg 2017 continues to appear to be a base-building period and, while large tractors are woefully below our original forecast, there is some evidence that they won’t go much lower in 2018. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/14840 Thu, 16 Nov 2017 00:00:00 -0500 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/14840-october-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charles-Glass-Photo---Sept-2017.jpg Farm equipment sales history is replete with hills and valleys and we certainly are in a valley now. Traditionally, the range between the hilltop and the valley floor is about 20% in terms of unit sales. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/14696 Fri, 13 Oct 2017 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/14696-september-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charles-Glass-Photo---Sept-2017.jpg Farm equipment sales history is replete with hills and valleys and we certainly are in a valley now. Traditionally, the range between the hilltop and the valley floor is about 20% in terms of unit sales. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/14547 Wed, 13 Sep 2017 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/14547-august-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charles-Glass-Photo---Sept-2017.jpg It comes as no surprise to anyone in this industry that 2017 is shaping up to be a difficult year in terms of larger equipment sales. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/14422 Fri, 11 Aug 2017 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/14422-july-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charlie Glass Our data allows us to take a very objective view of the current situation in the agricultural equipment markets and all are pointing toward a solid base building this year. There are concerns about the export markets from several perspectives. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/14347 Fri, 14 Jul 2017 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/14347-june-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charlie Glass There are signs that it is a difficult period for equipment sales, but objective data is evidence that positive change is in our future. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/14234 Thu, 15 Jun 2017 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/14234-may-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charlie Glass There are definitely signs that there is some strength building into the tractor markets as the year continues to progress. Confidence on rural main street remains high even though the political in-fighting in Washington D.C. roils. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/14136 Fri, 12 May 2017 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/14136-april-2017-tractor-and-combine-analysis Charlie Glass Here is Glass Management Group’s discussion and analysis of the farm equipment sales report issued by the Assn. of Equipment Manufacturers on April 10, 2017. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/13952 Wed, 12 Apr 2017 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/13952-march-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charlie Glass There is a renewed sense of confidence within the country these days and the latest jobs report certainly supports these sentiments. This latest report nearly doubled the projected increase in jobs for the month of February and showed an increase in full time positions for the first time in many months. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/13863 Wed, 15 Mar 2017 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/13863-february-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charlie Glass After the release of our 2017 forecast last November, we have received several communications from readers who seem to have the same question; “What planet are you from?” They did not agree with our forecast and, from the looks of things, they might be right! “What planet are you from?” They did not agree with our forecast and, from the looks of things, they might be right!]]> http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/13702 Tue, 14 Feb 2017 00:00:00 -0500 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/13702-january-2017-tractor-combine-analysis Charlie Glass This past year has been one of the most trying years in recent history for farm equipment manufacturers and dealers alike with precipitous declines in the large tractor markets and the combine market. If you were in an area where small horsepower tractors dominate, you have a bit of a smile on your face as this year draws to a close. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/13593 Mon, 16 Jan 2017 00:00:00 -0500 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/13593-december-2016-tractor-and-combine-analysis Charlie Glass 2016 is shaping up to be a difficult year but there are some bright spots shining through. U.S. farmers continue to exhibit some financial strength and that should allow them to take advantage of any future buying opportunities that might arise. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/13508 Thu, 15 Dec 2016 00:00:00 -0500 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/13508-november-2016-tractor-combine-analysis Charlie Glass It has been our custom to produce a calendar year forecast each November for the upcoming year. Following is our forecast for 2017. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/13405 Fri, 18 Nov 2016 00:00:00 -0500 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/13405-tractor-and-combine-forecast Charlie Glass Supply and demand is alive and well in the U.S. agricultural economy. Harvest of U.S. crops has begun and brings with it a great expectation of a record yields. Like a huge seesaw, high demand for a commodity elevates the prices customers are willing to pay for that product and when there is an excess worldwide inventory, prices fall to meet the slowing demand. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/13377 Fri, 11 Nov 2016 00:00:00 -0500 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/13377-october-2016-tractor-combine-analysis Charlie Glass Supply and demand is alive and well in the U.S. agricultural economy. Harvest of U.S. crops has begun and brings with it a great expectation of a record yields. Like a huge seesaw, high demand for a commodity elevates the prices customers are willing to pay for that product and when there is an excess worldwide inventory, prices fall to meet the slowing demand. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/13287 Mon, 17 Oct 2016 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/13287-september-2016-tractor-combine-analysis Charlie Glass Each time that Farm Equipment surveys dealers used equipment continues to be among their biggest worries. The past effects of Section 179 Bonus Depreciation has filled dealer's lots with a large number of relatively new, low hour tractors, combines and other equipment and these units have had an effect upon the sale of new equipment. Farm Equipment surveys dealers used equipment continues to be among their biggest worries. The past effects of Section 179 Bonus Depreciation has filled dealer's lots with a large number of relatively new, low hour tractors, combines and other equipment and these units have had an effect upon the sale of new equipment.]]> http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/13212 Thu, 15 Sep 2016 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/13212-august-2016-tractor-combine-analysis Charlie Glass Planting is completed and the crop is beginning to reach the point of showing what the harvest might look like and all eyes are on commodity prices. Some farmers were astute enough to hedge their production costs earlier when commodities were selling at acceptable levels. http://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6/post/13134 Mon, 15 Aug 2016 00:00:00 -0400 https://www.farm-equipment.com/blogs/6-opinions-columns/post/13134-july-2016-us-tractor-combine-sales-analysis Charlie Glass