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RSSCNH’s 5-Year Plan: Where Will the Growth Come From?
Along with its new 5-year plan that includes spinning off its industrial operations, when CNH released its earnings report yesterday, it raised its expectations for the rest of 2010.
According to JP Morgan analyst Ann Duignan, the company now expects global agricultural equipment markets to be flat to up 5% from down 5-10% in its previous outlook.
It also forecast that its global construction equipment markets would be up 15-20% from up 5-10% in 2010. This is pretty much in line with overall expectations for ag, but better than expected for construction equipment.
In the longer-term though, CNH’s outlook looks aggressive and suggests little upside for its stock.
In a separate announcement, CNH released its 5-year strategic plan with a 2014 GAAP equipment revenue target of $18.4 billion by 2014 and operating margins of 10.7-11.5% (mp 11.1%), which would get them to about $5 in EPS by 2014.
“While we believe that this is a real stretch, applying a trough multiple to peak earnings and discounting back implies a fair value of $34, or ~10% upside from here,” Duignan says.
In the longer term, CNH is looking for little or no growth in ag equipment in North America or the European Union. “Management expects ag equipment growth to be generated in developing regions and is forecasting about a 6.5% CAGR in ag equipment between 2010 and 2014; on the other hand, it is forecasting growth in construction equipment of about 18.5%,” Duignan says.
