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RSSUSDA: All Signals Point to Strong 2010-11 for U.S. Agriculture
So far, so good. According to the latest (September 10) report from USDA, agricultural commodity prices are on the rise and look strong for the last quarter of 2010 and going into 2011.
The ag agency has also raised projections for net farm income and cash receipts for 2010.
Net farm income is forecast to reach $77.1 billion in 2010, up $14.9 billion (24%) from 2009. The 2010 forecast is $12.3 billion above the average of $64.8 billion in net farm income earned annually in the previous 10 years and is the fourth-largest amount of income earned in U.S. farming. Cash receipts are expected to increase 6.5%, due in large part to higher livestock receipts.
Overall, crop receipts are forecast to increase a modest 0.4% with soybean and cotton receipts expected to show large gains while corn receipts aren’t expected to rise as much going into 2011.
Livestock receipts are expected to increase $17.7 billion in 2010, led by a 26% surge in cash receipts for dairy.
Farm expenses are projected to increase only moderately. Total production expenses in 2010 are forecast to be 1.1% higher, reversing the 4.1% drop in 2009. The increase is far below upward movements of 15.7% and 8.8% recorded in 2007 and 2008, respectively.
Here’s a summary on USDA’s expectations for commodity pricing from its September 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.
CORN — The season-average farm price is projected at $4.00 to $4.80 per bushel, compared with $3.50 to $4.10 last month. As of mid-September, corn prices are 35% above year-ago levels.
SOYBEANS — The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010-11 is projected at $9.15 to $10.65 per bushel, up 65 cents on both ends of the range. Through the middle of September, soybean prices are up 7% year-over-year compared with the same time last year.
COTTON — The average price received by producers is forecast at 63 to 77 cents per pound, 2 cents above the last 11 months. The midpoint of the interval, 70 cents per pound, would also be the highest price since 1995-96.
WHEAT — At the projected level, stocks would remain the second highest in more than a decade. The 2010-11 season-average farm price is projected at $4.95 to $5.65 per bushel, compared with $4.70 to $5.50 last month. Wheat pricing is up 52% year-over-year vs. pricing at the time in 2009.
MILK — The U.S. all milk price is forecast to average $16.25 to $16.45 per cwt for 2010 and $15.85 to $16.85 per cwt. for 2011.
